Israel must not allow Rebels to Control Syria
Israel's strategic interest in ensuring that Syria does not fall into the hands of rebel groups with ties to Al-Qaeda stems from both immediate and long-term security concerns. Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations, such as Jabhat al-Nusra (later rebranded as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham), pose a grave threat to the stability of the region. These groups are ideologically opposed to Israel's existence, are hostile to moderate Arab nations, and have historically shown little regard for civilian lives, as evidenced by their indiscriminate attacks and extreme tactics.
The Role of the CIA and Rogue Actors
The rebel forces tied to Al-Qaeda have, at various points, been linked to factions within the U.S. intelligence community, particularly rogue elements of the CIA. These factions, operating as a "deep state," have pursued policies that conflict with the Pentagon's objectives in Syria. While the Pentagon has supported stabilization efforts and partnerships with groups like the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), rogue CIA factions have allegedly armed and funded extremist groups, exacerbating conflict and undermining U.S. credibility. This internal schism within U.S. foreign policy apparatus has allowed a covert civil war to spill into the Middle East, where Syria has become a theater for proxy battles.
Implications for Israel
Israel must remain vigilant against attempts by rogue actors to manipulate regional conflicts for their own ends. Allowing Syria to fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda-affiliated rebels would:
Endanger Israeli Security: A radicalized Syria would pose a direct threat to Israel's northern border. Weapons and fighters could flow freely, creating a continuous state of insecurity.
Destabilize Regional Alliances: Moderate Arab nations working towards peace and normalization with Israel could be destabilized, undermining regional partnerships.
Strengthen Rogue Agendas: A rebel-controlled Syria would provide rogue actors within the international intelligence community with a foothold to perpetuate chaos, harming Israel's geopolitical standing.
The Erev Rav and Global Influence
The so-called "Erev Rav" (a term historically referring to a mixed multitude) is often used metaphorically to describe shadowy figures who manipulate power structures for personal or ideological gain. These entities, through their vast wealth and influence, allegedly infiltrate nations, including Israel, to steer policies in ways that undermine sovereignty and traditional values. For Israel, recognizing and countering such influence is critical to maintaining national security and preserving its identity.
The Covert Civil War in the U.S.
The election of Donald Trump has been interpreted by some as evidence of a power shift within the United States, with "white hats" (patriotic elements within the government and military) pushing back against rogue elements. However, the struggle is far from over. Rogue factions retain significant influence, leveraging tools like media control, financial institutions, and covert operations to advance their agenda.
Blanket Coverage for Israeli Action
The election of Donald Trump created a unique geopolitical landscape that offered Israel a window of opportunity to take decisive actions in Syria while aligning with broader U.S. strategic goals. Trump's administration, known for its unorthodox approach to foreign policy and its strong support for Israel, provided an environment in which Israel could act with relative autonomy, leveraging the administration's tacit approval and its tendency to disrupt traditional diplomatic protocols.
Trump’s robust support for Israel, coupled with his administration’s focus on countering Iranian influence and combating radical Islamic terrorism, effectively gave Israel a form of “blanket coverage” to conduct military and strategic operations in Syria. This coverage included:
Targeting Iranian Proxies: Israel has consistently aimed to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence in Syria. Under Trump, these actions were largely unchallenged, as they aligned with U.S. objectives to counter Iranian aggression in the region.
Preemptive Strikes: Israeli airstrikes on weapons convoys, missile sites, and other assets tied to Hezbollah and Iranian forces were intensified during the Trump era. These operations were executed with the implicit understanding that U.S. responses would remain supportive or neutral.
Operational Freedom: The lack of significant pushback from the U.S. allowed Israel to operate in the gray zone between overt war and covert operations, ensuring it could neutralize threats without triggering a broader regional conflict.
Plausible Deniability for Trump
Trump’s unconventional leadership style and focus on domestic priorities also provided a layer of plausible deniability for Israel’s actions in Syria. This dynamic worked in several ways:
Delegation of Responsibility: By allowing Israel to take the lead on regional security in Syria, the Trump administration could focus its attention elsewhere, avoiding entanglement in the details of Israeli military operations.
Ambiguity in Policy: Trump's administration often maintained an ambiguous stance on specific operations, which allowed Israel to act decisively without implicating the U.S. directly. This ambiguity preserved Trump's ability to deflect criticism or deny direct involvement.
Geopolitical Signaling: Israel's actions under Trump also served as a form of strategic messaging to adversaries like Iran, Syria, and Russia, showcasing that U.S.-aligned forces were not retreating from the region but were recalibrating their approach.
Strategic Implications for Israel
This alignment between the Trump administration and Israel enabled the latter to execute sweeping moves in Syria, including:
Establishing Red Lines: Israel fortified its red lines, particularly against the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah and the buildup of Iranian forces near its borders.
Shaping the Battlefield: By degrading the capabilities of hostile actors in Syria, Israel not only safeguarded its security but also influenced the post-war balance of power in the region.
Neutralizing Threats to Sovereignty: With Trump’s backing, Israel expanded its scope of operations to include preemptive measures that curtailed the ability of hostile entities to mount future threats.
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