Apple is a Historic Short

I am bearish long term on Apple.

I believe the lack of innovation combined with their rent seeking behavior across their ecosystem as demonstrated by their monopolistic payment system product and predatory app store model which will come back to haunt them and drive a revolution.

Monopolistic Practices and Ecosystem Control

Apple's tight control over its ecosystem and its rent-seeking behavior have raised concerns. Their monopolistic payment system and app store model, which require app developers to use Apple's payment infrastructure and pay hefty commissions, exemplify this. This has led to friction with developers and regulatory scrutiny. As laws and market dynamics shift, such practices may lead to increased competition and legal challenges that could undermine Apple's dominance.

Lack of Innovation

Apple's leadership has struggled to introduce truly novel product ideas or significant iterations. The company's recent product launches have largely focused on incremental improvements rather than groundbreaking innovations. This stagnation in innovation makes Apple vulnerable to competitors who are more agile and willing to push the boundaries of technology.

Peak Performance and Market Saturation

I see Apple as having reached a "Microsoft moment," where its growth has plateaued. Today the company maintains its luxury device dominance in the consumer sector market saturation in key product areas like smartphones and laptops can limit growth potential and make it challenging for Apple to sustain its past performance levels.

Closed Ecosystem and Future Challenges

Apple's closed ecosystem, while initially a strength, will become a liability as consumers and businesses seek more open and interoperable solutions. This shift in user preferences will lead to a decline in Apple's market share and influence. As technology trends evolve, Apple's reluctance to adapt to more open and collaborative models may further isolate it from future growth opportunities.

Long-Term Projections

I predict that by 2040, Apple will be a shadow of its former self. This projection is based on the assumption that Apple's current strategies and market dynamics will lead to a decline in its relevance and market position. Factors such as increased competition, evolving consumer preferences, and potential regulatory impacts could contribute to this decline.