Birth Rates are Collapsing
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Last updated
Last updated
By 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time; this will increase to 97% of countries (198 of 204) by 2100.
Pronounced shifts in patterns of livebirths are also predicted, with the share of the world’s livebirths nearly doubling in low-income regions from 18% in 2021 to 35% in 2100; and sub-Saharan Africa accounting for one in every two children born on the planet by 2100.
In low-income settings with higher fertility rates, better access to contraceptives and female education will help reduce birth rates, while in low-fertility, high-income economies, policies that support parents and open immigration will be vital to maintain population size and economic growth.
Authors warn that national governments must plan for emerging threats to economies, food security, health, the environment, and geopolitical security brought on by these demographic changes that are set to transform the way we live.
The world is approaching a low-fertility future. Although by 2100 more than 97% of countries and territories will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time, comparatively high fertility rates in numerous low-income countries, predominantly in Western and Eastern sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to drive population increases in these locations throughout the century. This “demographically divided world” will have enormous consequences for economies and societies, according to a new study published in The Lancet.
Using novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, key drivers of fertility (e.g., level of education, unmet need for modern contraception, child mortality, and living in urban areas), and livebirths, the researchers estimate that by 2050, 155 of 204 (76%) countries and territories will be below the replacement level of fertility. The number of countries and territories below replacement level is predicted to further increase to 198 of 204 (97%) by 2100. This means that in these locations, populations will shrink unless low fertility can be offset by ethical and effective immigration. The extent of low fertility may also be mitigated in part by policies that offer greater support for parents.
Birth rates are falling much faster than many dominant narratives imply. The global fertility rate for all of Latin America and the Caribbean fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman in 2019. India will achieve that status in 2024. China is expected to be at half its current population by 2066. First-generation immigrants to the US fell below the replacement rate in 2019. Already, 115 countries representing about half the world’s population are beneath replacement, and by the end of the century nearly every country in Africa is projected to have a rapidly declining population.
People underestimate how quickly this effect will be felt. South Korea currently has a total fertility rate of 0.81. For every 100 South Korean great-grandparents, there will be 6.6 great-grandkids. At the 0.7 fertility rate predicted in South Korea by 2024, that amounts to 4.3 great-grandkids. It’s as if we knew a disease would kill 94 percent of South Koreans in the next century.
Economic Impact: A shrinking working-age population poses significant challenges for economic growth. Fewer workers mean lower productivity and reduced economic output. Additionally, a declining population can lead to a decrease in consumer demand, further hampering economic growth. Governments may face difficulties in funding social welfare programs, such as pensions and healthcare, as the ratio of working-age individuals to retirees shrinks.
Social Consequences: The decline in birth rates may lead to shifts in social structures and community life. Smaller families and fewer children can result in less vibrant communities and weakened social ties. The aging population may also place greater demands on social services, with fewer younger people available to care for the elderly. This could exacerbate issues such as loneliness and social isolation among older adults.
Geopolitical Ramifications: The decline in birth rates in the West could alter the global balance of power. Countries with declining populations may struggle to maintain their influence on the world stage, particularly in comparison to regions with growing populations, such as Africa and Asia. This demographic shift could lead to changes in global economic dynamics, military capabilities, and international relations.
Hungary’s prime minister has announced a raft of measures aimed at boosting the country’s declining birth rate and reducing immigration.
Giving his annual State of the Nation address Sunday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced a seven-point “Family Protection Action Plan” designed to promote marriage and families.
Measures announced included waivers on personal income tax for women raising at least four children for the rest of their lives and subsidies for large families to buy larger cars. The ‘action plan’ also extended a loan program to help families with at least two children to buy homes. Every woman under 40 will also be eligible for a preferential loan when she first gets married.
The government has also said it will spend more on Hungary’s heathcare system and will create 21,000 creche places. In addition, grandparents will be eligible to receive a childcare fee if they look after young children instead of the parents, Orban said.
"And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth."
Genesis 1:28
Creator God provides simple solutions for modern day problems: be fruitful and multiply. How can policymakers embrace this simple teaching of indigenous wisdom?
Across much of the West, birth rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, leading to aging populations, shrinking workforces and the potential for population collapse. To avoid this outcome, it is essential to create conditions that encourage families to have more children. One effective way to achieve this is through policies that reward larger families with tax breaks and other financial incentives. Such policies can help to reverse the trend of declining birth rates and ensure that cultures remain vibrant and enduring.
Policy Recommendations
To effectively implement tax breaks for large families, governments should consider the following policy recommendations:
Four or More Kids for Low to No Taxes: By providing tax breaks and other incentives for families with four or more children directly address the issue of declining birth rates by providing a financial incentive to have more children. These incentives can help offset the costs of raising a large family, making it more feasible for parents to choose to have more children. By encouraging population growth, these policies can help stabilize and even increase the population, ensuring that there are enough people to sustain economies, support social welfare systems, and maintain cultural traditions.
Graduated Tax Credits: Implement a system of graduated tax credits that increase with each additional child beyond the second. For example, families with three children might receive a modest tax break, while those with four or more children receive significantly larger tax credits. This structure would provide a clear incentive for families to have more children.
Grandparent Childcare Tax Credit: Implement a system of graduated tax credits for grandparents who assist with childcare for their grandchildren.
Subsidies for Childcare and Education: In addition to tax breaks, governments could offer subsidies for childcare, education, and healthcare for large families. These subsidies would help alleviate the financial burden of raising multiple children and make it easier for families to provide a high quality of life for their children.
Parental Leave and Work Flexibility: Policies that promote work-life balance, such as extended parental leave and flexible work arrangements, can make it more feasible for parents to have larger families. By supporting parents in balancing their careers and family life, governments can create an environment where having more children is both desirable and practical.
